SOUTHEASTERN N.C. — El Niño’s increased wind shear will affect the Atlantic basin and by proxy could dampen the 2026 hurricane season, according to a 40-year report released every spring.
Colorado State University — which has a premier Department of Atmospheric Science and has been doing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984 — is predicting a “below-average” 2026 season along the continental United States coastline and Caribbean.
CSU is estimating 13 named storms overall, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes for the 2026 season. This is down from an average 14.4 named storms overall, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 hurricanes in the decades between 1991 and 2020.
Because in the next few months CSU expects La Nina to become El Niño, it could increase winds out of the west, particularly vertical wind shear, which pivots speed and direction of height in the atmosphere. Too much shearing tears apart a hurricane.
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the report indicates. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Last year, CSU predicted an above-normal season and it ended up being just that, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major ones. Three reached Category 5 intensity (Erin, Humberto and Melissa).
Once the season gets underway, June 1 through Nov. 30, CSU will release updates — to come this year on June 10, July 8, and August 5.
By comparison, NC State also releases a hurricane forecast annually. It’s similar to CSU predictions, give or take: 12 named storms, six to nine hurricanes, and two or three major ones. Though NC State calls it an “average” season.
To prepare for the season, various expos are taking place in the tri-county region as residents prepare their hurricane emergency kits. Save the dates below:
May 16: New Hanover County Disaster Coalition — The expo will help visitors develop a plan, explore tools and resources and engage with local partners. It takes place 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the Skyline Center, 929 N. Front St., and is hosted in partnership with the United Way and City of Wilmington. There will be free ice pops, giveaways, food trucks and a Kids Zone.
June 6: Pender County Disaster Expo — Hosted by Pender County Long Term Recovery Group, the expo will bring together community partners, emergency response agencies, and local organizations to help residents prepare for the upcoming hurricane season. Attendees will learn how to build a disaster supply kit, receive information on hurricane preparedness and evacuation planning and discover resources available to residents before, during, and after a disaster. It takes place from 10 a.m. to noon at Burgaw Middle School Gym, 500 Wright St.
June 13: Town of Leland Hurricane Expo — Attendees will be entered for a chance to win a rain barrel, have access to important storm preparedness information, ask questions and receive guidance from local experts, connect with key stakeholders and partner agencies, and pick up a copy of the Town of Leland’s official Hurricane Guide. It takes place from 9 a.m. to noon at Leland Cultural Arts Center, 1212 Magnolia Village Way.
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