NEW HANOVER COUNTY — The New Hanover County commissioners and planning board kicked off comprehensive plan discussions Thursday with a harsh reality. Not only is housing becoming less accessible for those earning below the median income level, but the county will also need upward of 20,000 more units to support its projected population growth.
READ MORE: Commissioners doubt they can meet housing assessment needs, discuss ‘last frontier’ of land
A housing needs assessment is a component of the comprehensive plan update the county is undertaking to guide land use decisions through 2050. The last study in 2023 revealed the county’s total housing gap — rentals and for-sale homes at all price points — was estimated at 16,875 units over the next 10 years.
Now, that number is closer to 21,864 — 12,864 for ownership and 8,317 for rental — per data presented by Mollie Fitzpatrick of Root Policy Research. Over the next 20 years, the total rises to 38,697 units to accommodate a population of 305,506 by 2043; currently, 243,333 live in New Hanover County.
Notably, this projected gap is based on the county retaining its current income stratification. It does not account for a goal, if commissioners were to make it one, to increase the county’s lower income resident population, who are increasingly being pushed out by wealthier migrants into the county.
Breaking down the future unit needs this way shows the greatest demand is for households making 151% or more of the area’s median income — $79,106 for a family of four. The next highest is households in the 51% to 80% AMI with 5,978 units, followed by the 0% to 30% AMI at 4,981 units.
A shortage of housing is not unique to New Hanover County; the national gap in units for the nation’s lowest income earners is estimated between four and seven million homes. The nation has been underbuilding housing for decades, driven by rising construction costs, regulatory thresholds and zoning laws that make it harder to build.
However, as Commissioner Rob Zapple pointed out at Thursday’s meeting, there’s a “complete and utter disconnect” between the housing needs and public perception of it.
“I hear this consistently from the public: stop the apartments,” Zapple said.
Multi-family or dense developments proposed before local planning boards almost always draw pushback from residents. They are concerned with many negative consequences associated with apartment or townhome complexes, the most cited being increased traffic, environmental degradation, escalated flooding risks and the development not fitting the single-family homeowners’ vision of their neighborhood.
It is important to note that feedback at public meetings often skews toward people who show up to speak. Meeting participants are not necessarily representative of an entire community — national data shows them more likely to be older, male, longtime residents, voters in local elections, and homeowners — or of varying viewpoints, as participants tend to show up only when a proposal will negatively affect them.
Planning board vice chair Colin Tarrant concurred with Zapple’s experiences with unhappy residents. He surmised current residents feel “forgotten” when county staff and representatives talks about accommodating people that haven’t yet moved here.
“What they are expressing to us is we are building for the people that are coming here and we’re not taking care of the people who are here,” Tarrant said.
Outspoken residents often complain the county cannot support more people and thus more development, pointing to infrastructure and environmental constraints and overcrowding the school system, both associated with growth. However, the housing assessment shows the county is not meeting the needs of its most vulnerable populations, the people less likely to show up to public meetings.
There are 14,361 two-person households making below 50% AMI, or $36,100, but only 6,984 rental units offered at an affordable price — or below $903. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development considers anyone spending more than a third of their monthly income on rent to be cost-burdened.
The gap doesn’t just exist in the rental market; 39% of renters make between 50% to 120% AMI, so $36,100 and $86,640. However, only 12% of home sales went to people in this income range in 2023, demonstrating how difficult it is for working-class people — including teachers, first responders, those in the service industry supporting local tourism — to access home ownership. Further data from the assessment shows the share of homes available to the median buyer dropped from 50% to 5% in 2023.
Commissioner Stephanie Walker said she would like to see the county figure out ways to bring down costs for its workforce, “whether that’s with subsidies or policy or affordability of homes themselves, or bring wages up to be able to meet that.”
Housing is just one part of the comprehensive plan; on Thursday commissioners and planning board members also heard a presentation on the county’s commercial offerings and job market. One county leader questioned if it was feasible to juggle both.
“There are so many competing issues when we talk about what are we going to do with the land we have left,” planning board member Kevin Hine said. “Is it going to be economic development or affordable housing?
In 2023, Port City Daily reported there were 100 undeveloped or underdeveloped county parcels that could be used for housing. The county just took one off the market with its commitment to purchase 60 acres at 3900 Independence Boulevard, known as the Flossie Bryan tract, and conserve it as greenspace. The property was eyed for 512 apartments, 45 townhomes, and 25 single-family units last fall, but developer Northwood Ravin pulled its rezoning proposal after significant resident pushback.
Commissioner Dane Scalise, a proponent of the land purchase, told the group Thursday he saw no reason why the county couldn’t build more necessary housing alongside accomplishing other goals.
“Namely, promoting environmental stewardship and ecosystem health, mitigating hazard risk and strengthening climate resiliency,” he said. “I think that we can actually do these things in tandem with one another and that’s what people talk about whenever they use development.”
Both planning board members Walter Avery and Cameron Moore said it would take changes to the code to rise to the housing need occasion. Avery remarked developers like him needed flexibility in the land use code to deliver units while creating a sense of place, another proposed goal in the comprehensive plan. Moore said the county needed to come to terms with more compact development and an urbanized code.
“I can’t put 21,000 units on the ground without it being a dense development,” Moore said.
The two men, along with planning board member Clark Hipp, mentioned improving transportation as a priority.
“We have to be willing to look at creative solutions,” Hipp said, “ and it’s not just roads. It is public transportation, it is bike paths, it is greenways.”
However, Tarrant thought the county may be spreading itself too thin, with planning staff presenting 10 goals it wanted to incorporate into the plan. The commissioners agreed a more narrow focus, such as three or four goals in which some of the other six could maybe fall under, would help streamline success and communication with the public.
Planning Director Rebekah Roth said her staff would work on condensing the presented goals before the next joint meeting.
The goals, based on resident, planning board and commissioner feedback, include:
- Sense of place through design and placemaking
- Housing affordability and availability
- Environmental stewardship
- Hazard mitigation and resiliency
- Economic development
- Transportation
- Coordinated development patterns
- Regional coordination
- Community engagement
- Proactive planning for community services
Reach journalist Brenna Flanagan at brenna@localdailymedia.com.
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