WILMINGTON — A crowd of elected officials and local stakeholders were given insight into the future of Wilmington homelessness if more housing isn’t built at the Cape Fear Housing Coalition’s annual affordable housing event.
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Gregg Colburn, an associate professor of real estate at the University of Washington and researcher and author on housing and homelessness, warned that “all the things are moving in the wrong direction” in regards to homelessness in Wilmington.
In his recent book “Homelessness is a Housing Problem: How Structural Factors Explain U.S. Patterns,” Colburn studies why certain cities have higher homeless populations than others, debunking common misconceptions.
Data shows San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, New York City, Washington D.C. and Boston have about five times the per capita homeless population of Chicago, while also outnumbering other major cities like Atlanta or Tampa.
“We should want to understand why that is,” Colburn said. “And if we can give a credible answer to that question, it should tell us something fundamental about the nature of this crisis, and allow us to focus our time and additional resources on that root cause.”
Cities with more homeless people have tighter housing markets, Colburn revealed. Wilmington’s one of them.
According to his data, gross rents in Wilmington have increased by 50% over the last decade, but the average rental vacancy rate over the last few years has reached a “dangerously low” 3.2% (anything below 5% is considered a deficit). Essentially, while Wilmington’s population continues to rise, available housing is not keeping pace with that growth — a recipe that pushes more people into the streets, according to Colburn.
“What we have is a really screwed up housing market that’s pushing people by the tens of thousands into homelessness,” Colburn said. “Ultimately, we need capital investments to construct housing, and where housing is difficult to construct, we need to think about changing that.”
Colburn’s conclusion is what he dubs in his book as a proactive approach that closely aligns with the more reactive Housing First concept of focusing on reducing barriers to housing access as a solution to homelessness.
First put forth in the 1990s, the Housing First concept maintains that a person can better address their individual problems, including mental health struggles, substance abuse or job insecurity, when basic needs, i.e. shelter, are met. It became the guiding principle for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, which creates incentives for homelessness service providers that follow the approach. Whereas Housing First stresses the need for housing connections, Colburn’s proposal aims to ensure there is housing available to support that goal, but both approaches support the idea that housing is the primary variable in solving homelessness.
Commissioner Jonathan Barfield, one of two elected officials present besides commissioner Chair Bill Rivenbark, said he liked seeing Colburn’s data.
“I was definitely encouraged,” Barfield told PCD Monday.
Barfield has been a proponent of increasing affordable housing in the county, though not everyone has seen eye-to-eye. The most vocal critic of the strategy has been city councilmember Luke Waddell, who last year voted against the city’s plan to use Covid-19 relief funds, $2.1 million of which were dedicated to permanent supportive housing.
Waddell said the housing first mentality is “antiquated” and does not address the root causes of homelessness.
“My main problem stems from the fact that permanent supportive housing doesn’t require people to address or treat mental health and/or — often it’s ‘and’ and not ‘or’ — substance abuse,” Waddell told PCD last year. “It’s a real disservice to folks suffering.”
However, Colburn presented a different image. He studied the correlation between substance abuse and mental health conditions as separate variables in relation to homelessness and found neither presented a strong relationship. While it is true that many people experiencing homelessness struggle with mental health or substance abuse, neither are a driver to homelessness, he said.
“We also know that it’s equally likely that your addiction here and illness as a consequence of living on the street,” Colburn said, noting if he lived on the street he would also medicate. “The trauma of living on the street is unbelievable. People are exposed to physical and sexual assault for not eating, they’re not sleeping. You’re not getting regular medical care. The fact that people would develop behavioral health challenges as a result of that shouldn’t surprise anyone.”
Through his research, Colburn also ruled out poverty as a contributing factor, reporting that some of the highest impoverished cities, like Detroit, Michigan, had lower rates of homelessness compared to more affluent areas.
Colburn also ruled out weather, race or political power as contributing factors.
“The point is that the simple narrative of permissive, left-leaning policies causing homelessness doesn’t hold up because Democrats have run Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Philadelphia longer than I’ve been alive and do not produce massive problems with homelessness,” Colburn said.
He also assuaged the crowd that a municipality or state that provides a variety of services does not necessarily draw people from other states; moving is tough enough on people with the resources to do so. Colburn said a questionnaire asked homeless individuals in California where they were from; 90% were born there.
“Social networks are important to all of us,” Colburn said. “If your mom is the only one who can take care of your kids in Seattle, are you going to move to Des Moines?”
Ultimately, the variable that correlated the most with an increase in homelessness was housing market conditions — high rents and low vacancy rates equals more homelessness.
But, Colburn said, Wilmington is at a fulcrum point for addressing the issue, and the way to do that is increasing housing units, particularly multi-family. Two things affect the ability to build more: topography and regulatory environment. The latter is where municipalities leverage the most control.
Colburn advocates for a shift in focus from single-family homes to multi-family, essentially acceptance of denser cities.
Barfield acknowledged the county has been doing this more, but does often face NIMBY-like calls from neighbors to reject multi-family developments, often on the basis of density.
“People have got to get comfortable with that,” Barfield said.
The commissioner also cited a recent example: the county planning board’s unanimous disapproval of New Beginnings Church’s workforce housing initiative last month. The rezoning request would have doubled the allowable units. Pastor Rob Campbell is bringing it before commissioners next week, regardless, and spoke at Monday’s breakfast.
“When you go to try to get zoning, as I recently did, and you met all of the standards as far as environment, water runoff, those things, then you get voted seven to zero, because of density,” Campbell said. “We need greater density, but this exclusionary zoning is part of the problem.”
Campbell told PCD two weeks ago local leaders needed to have the political will to make vast change in affordable housing.
Other ways to reduce land-use barriers include fast-tracking the permitting process, reducing or eliminating design or dimensional standards for projects with workforce or affordable housing components, and allowing the use of accessory dwelling units on single-family lots. These ideas were mandated last year in several bills from the General Assembly, though none made it into law; still, with bipartisan support, they are expected to return in this year’s short session.
While Colburn suggested reducing barriers to all building, not just government-supported projects or affordable housing, simply increasing the amount of housing won’t necessarily fix the homelessness problem.
Many researchers note that efforts to increase housing stock should be coupled with strategies to keep incumbent residents, especially more vulnerable communities, from being priced out of the area. Cities like Atlanta, Minneapolis and Oakland face decades of racial housing discrimination; combined with elite corporate development strategies, it has led to gentrification. The same could happen here if strategies are adopted to keep low-income people in their homes through other initiatives such as tenant protections, eviction prevention and social housing.
As Colburn pointed out, there will still be people who cannot afford a private developers’ price, and that’s where the government — the federal government, most importantly — should step in to help provide affordable housing.
Last year, the county unveiled $3 million in workforce housing grants, with half of funds dedicated to increasing permanent supportive housing units and rental assistance. The money will benefit four affordable housing projects aimed at helping around 300 people. The grants are part of the county’s $15 million, five-year plan to address workforce housing needs.
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