Update: The National Hurricane Center has downgraded Hurricane Florence to a category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds dropping to 90 mph (150km/h).
Update: As of 5:30 a.m. Thursday morning, Hurricane Florence has dipped to a Category 2 hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.
According to the National Weather Service, even though Florence is moving swiftly to the northwest, it is believed that the hurricane will stall and meander near the Carolina coast from Thursday night to Saturday.
SOUTHEASTERN N.C. — Hurricane Florence is now expected to hit the Carolina coast with less powerful winds, a trade-off with increased rainfall — which may ultimately be more damaging for some areas. There is also a “slight” risk of tornadoes in the coastal region of North Carolina.
The first severe winds from Hurricane Florence are still expected to hit the Wilmington area around Thursday at 2 p.m., with the eye striking the Wilmington area on Friday afternoon at 2 p.m., according to most recent update from the National Weather Service (NWS); you can read the most recent NWS update here.
Winds are now expected at slightly less extreme levels, around the 120 miles-per-hour level associated with a Category 3 storm. These winds are still easily capable of causing significant structural damage.
Aside from wind-shear dangers, concerns are now shifting to flooding and storm surge issues. The Wilmington area can currently expect 9-to-13-foot storm surges if Florence’s peak impact coincides with high tide, Brunswick County coastal areas west of Southport can expect 6-to-9-foot surges. For comparison, Hurricane Irene caused a 7-foot surge in 2011, and Hurricane Hazel caused an 18-foot surge in Calabash and Carolina Shores in 1954.
The storm surge risk will be highest between Southport and Surf City. Tidal creeks throughout Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties will also be at risk.
The latest predictions also show that, while Florence will pack less powerful winds, it will also slow down, allowing it to drop much more rain on the Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender county areas. The first tropical-storm-strength winds are currently expected to hit on Thursday at 2 p.m. and last throughout the weekend.
The Wilmington area is also at the center of predictions for extreme levels of rainfall; while inland area can expect 7 to 20 inches, Wilmington can expect 2 to 3 feet of rain, according to the NWS — that’s likely to eclipse the monthly record in the span of just several days. The intense rainfall is guaranteed to cause flooding in low-lying and coastal areas, as well as the overflow of watersheds, retention ponds, and tributaries, according to NWS.
When it comes to floods, extreme caution has been advised by state and local officials: just several inches of running floodwater can knock a full-grown person off their feet, and just a foot of running water can sweep a medium-sized passenger car off the road. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction, all of coastal North Carolina is at “high” risk of flash flooding, with “moderate” risk, even 30-50 miles inland.
An area from Virginia Beach to Charleston can also expect closer to 6 inches.
The most recent predictions no longer have Florence traveling north, along the Atlantic coast. Instead, the storm is now expected to make landfall over Wilmington, traveling south over Myrtle Beach between Friday and Saturday, and then traveling through South Carolina and North Carolina to the Tennessee border through Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday the storm is expected to move into West Virginia as it dissipates.
There is also a “slight” risk of tornadoes along the coastal region between Southport and Surf City, along with a “marginal” risk several miles inland, through Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties, according to the National Weather Service.
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